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Shall make for a VP debate that people will be looking forward to (and usually, hardly anyone looks forward to the VP debates).
PS: Did you know that Walmart is already stocking her action figure? That was a brilliant move, too.
She's the governor of a notoriously corrupt state that is funded by Big Oil, making her an easy bogeyman.
I also think Biden, who is also immensely relatable to the blue collar set, will tear her apart in the debates (which could backfire since he'll seem mean and "sexist").
The real brilliance was distracting the media from the amazing speech last night. That was fucking perfect.
I think the real strategy from McCain (Rove) was "Get the Hillary voters." Once those solidly Democratic voters find out about Palin's pro-life, creationist views, the sell won't be so easy.
Still think it's a brilliant strategy...but Dems should attack it as irresponsible being McCain is, well, not a spring chicken.
1. Conservatives. Most true conservatives are disappointed to have to vote for McCain to hold back Obama. By picking not just a solid conservative (who is more conservative than McCain by half), but one who made a name for herself by going after the corrupt Republicans who have been giving conservatism a bad name, McCain hit a home run with this group.
2. Moderates wanting nothing more than "changiness." This group wants social change and doesn't care much (or know much) about "the issues." McCain represented the old order and Obama the new. Now, they can be a part of history no matter who they vote for. This swipes one of Obama's most prescient advantages with this group. There may be some previous Hillary supporters in this group who may abandon the DNC for McCain who, as I mentioned before, doesn't have the most solid of conservative credentials anyway.
3. Middle America. Just as Alan said. 5 kids. Humble beginnings. Perfect underdog story that fits with the McCain story: Taking on the establishment from within her own party. The difference is that she typically attacks them from the right, while McCain challenges them from the left. We'll see if that placates audience #1.
The lack of experience isn't really a knock, unless the other side is willing to submit the importance of their own lack of credentials. It takes away McCain's experience thunder, too, but the other advantages should more than make up for that.
The timing of this was perfect -- right after Obama's speech. Now, had he picked Kay Baily Hutchinson, Romney, Guliani, Huckabee, or any of the other names being floated around, it wouldn't have been as perfect. But McCain desperately needed to fire up his base -- those who will be beating the bushes until election day.
This has made the election a lot more interesting.
So they took experience off the table to rely on a pretty easily refutable, in issues, in rhetoric and in life story, charge, that was beaten up pretty well in front of more viewers than the oscars or the opening ceremonies got.
Anyway, - I've got my full take on Palin over at Facebook. I'm too much of a wuss to post it on the blog. :)
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=245225...
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archiv...
Frankly, McCain runs the risk of destroying his entire country-first brand with this pick. I get the feeling he'll see a bump out of this for a week or so, then light bulbs will begin to go off in a lot of heads.
Now Palin may turn out to be a total dud who quickly proves she's less qualified to be VP than even Dan Quayle was and the whole thing will be a non-issue. Time will tell.
Also- not to beat up on you, but citing The New Republic on why Republicans are bad is like citing kindergartners on why spinach is yucky: if they don't dis Palin, who will?
And Bill - what's AMNR stand for? (It's late)
And I agree that refuting an elitism charge isn't exactly simple, but I also think Kerry did nothing to fight back against it, so that may also skew our opinions of the difficulty. He also didn't have as much wind at his back on the subject as Obama has, or the life story, or the health care solutions, or tax cuts, etc. Still not easy, but easier than it has been. If Hillary or John Edwards can do it, Obama should be able to sound a little more populist, too.
And I got it on TNR! How about David Frum or Ramesh Ponnuru. Tough to get more right than that...
http://frum.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2VhOWE0...
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWY0Ym...
I'd be willing to bet the meme is already starting. Do you really trust her to deal with the massive foreign policy and economic decisions that face this country? She might have worked 4 or 8 years ago, or 4 years from now, but i'm not sure Americans are comfortable enough to go with that big of a wildcard.
And ANWR is the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve. She's for drilling there, McCain is against it. Until he changes his mind sometime in the next few days, anyway...
And for some reason BoBos (and many of us- myself included fall into
this category) tend to rub Walmart America the wrong way. Probably
because, like Barry & Michelle, many of them come from more humble
backgrounds but are now perceived as thinking that "they're better
than us" because of their knowledge of calculus, obscure salad
ingredients and regional distinctions amongst coffee beans.
This anger does not, for whatever reason, seem to extend to old money
families or the superrich, who are perceived as being a completely
different species from birth.
With Kerry, the elitist charge was more about his being a career
politician from a wealthy family who'd never been out in the real
world-- somehow Bush, who had a remarkably similar background-- was
able to use the ranch and his failed oil industry ventures to deflect
a similar charge.
Great links, btw- to National Review and your own Facebook thoughts.
@George T: That cuts both ways: The Obamas are exactly the sort of
people their core BoBo supporters would like to share a glass of obscure-but-highly rated Australian Shiraz with. Especially because BoBos get
extra points for sharing shiraz with "really interesting" black people.
I still intend to write in Bloomberg, so it makes little difference to me.
-----
EDIT: Wow did I speak too soon on that one. You can't say I didn't give her a chance. Almost every time she opens her mouth something cringe-worthy comes out.
But Tiegs is not your VP nomination. She's your candidate for a new cabinet post you are proposing: secretary of blowjob. Dedicated to more oral sex.
This is a continuation of the Bushophile strategy of who would you like to share a beer with. With McCain I can trade war stories. With Palin, I can get laid.
We'll know soon enough.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgVUxmjf0G8
fear that he may be asked to donate to PBS"
I love it!
The problem with liberal-arts-educated, urbanish Democrats (and I include myself here, very much) is that we can't even process what it is that makes blue-collar middle-america tick. And even if we did, we wouldn't want to live in their world.
But it is their world, and it's different, and they love it. And she's a shining example of everything the Republican party upholds as their core values.
It will be difficult for the D's to attack her character.
And as her opponents in Alaska discovered, people just like her. And they vote for her. She stirs the same enthusiasm on the Right that Obama stirs on the left. (And the same anger among people on the other side.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQx42Tsz5NQ
Not to quibble over semantics, but it’s too bad ‘surprising” has now been associated with ‘maverick’ as it relates to McCain. When did being a maverick mean it had to surprise? It’s just about being different.
Palin is the GOP ideal reimagined as younger female running mate. No ‘surprise’ there and hardly different—just more of the same.
McCain failed, once again, to show that he has the judgement to take the problems of this country seriously. This is a very important time in our country. I don't see how any sane person would be happy with such an inexperienced person advising the president -- much less a heart-beat away from it herself.
Paul -- please post your remarks against Palin on your blog...some of us (OK, 1 of us) will no longer access Facebook due to ethical grounds. Or at least send them to me in an email (I really want to see what you wrote ;-).
I couldn't disagree with you more. Right-minded American women will NOT vote based on gender -- especially not for a hot, pro-life mama.
Sarah Palin's lack of experience, coupled with McCain's age and history of illness (skin cancer) make this one a non-starter for most folks.
The final nail in the coffin will be during the Biden/Palin debates.
This was a rogue move and a strategic misfire. He's a goner.
Brad
However, I don't know how much it will help McCain in the electoral count. I don't think she'll help him turn over Michigan (right or wrong, his "your jobs aren't coming back" comment probably killed him there), Pennsylvania can relate more to Biden than any other name on the tickets, and she won't help in Florida at all. She might help in Minnesota and Ohio. I think the other "toss up" states are mostly a lock for McCain (CO, NV) or Obama (NM, NH) and NC and VA could go either way, but not due to Palin.
As for Biden/Palin debates, Joe will massacre her, but might come off as mean.
She seems genuinely nice. I just hope the fine 700K people or so of Alaska don't lose their nice governor.
But as many others on here have affirmed, there's a whole world out there of conservative blue colllar women who are thrilled to see someone like themselves running. As Carl Loeb points out, Palin is both charismatic and well-liked in her home state. She will connect with the sorts of people you'd never encounter in a NYC ad agency. And to further quote Mr. Loeb (a Bay Area liberal, if ever there was one, to put his quotes into context) Gov. Palin incites the same exact sort of hatred among liberals as Sen. Obama incites among conservatives.
Or to put it another way, you may not want to believe that there are people out there who will connect with her, but that doesn't make it not so.
@Yikes: I suspect the scenario you lay out is spot on. But much room for tactical errors, misstatements and October surprises. If nothing else, it will be most interesting.
Simple questions to all -- from NY or around the country -- if McCain (a man I like and respect) were to kick the bucket in office, would you want Palin as your Commander and Chief?
More commentary on Ms. Palin from around the country. This one has a bit of an Andrew Dice Clay feel to it.
http://video.google.com/videosearch?client=safa...
For millions of people, the answer to that question is "I'd rather
have Palin than Obama."
It may seem completely illogical to you, but for them, your opinion is equally illogical.
And here's some proof they actually do exist, from (of all places) the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/31/us/politics/3...
Congratulations on one of the most astute analyses I have read.
That being said, we get the representation we deserve.
McCain had to have known about the pregnant daughter, right?
As long as I've been in this country, this is the first time i've really paid attention to the prez-picking process. And i have to say the whole thing is absurd. Americans are sooooooooooooo rigorous. poring over every policy and election promise. And pretending they understand macro-economic and monetary policy. which is great.. god bless us for trying.
And THEN we elect Bush/Cheney. And then we go and re-elect bush/cheney.
the meaningless charge that Obama is elitist is typical of how we focus our energy looking at the wrong things. both obama and mccain hopefully represent the elite of our country. we've had eight years of a plain-speakin' idiot who has led our country to the brink of catastrophe on pretty much every front.
the country needs lots of elitism. fast!
Where's the brilliance, exactly?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/billy-kimball/how... or http://is.gd/298D
@Vinny: I find that many Americans are far more suspicious of a perceived "whadda ya think- you're better than us?" intellectual elitism than they are of any sort of economic-based one.
also, there's the whole thing of leader vs. servant. in europe we elect the person we think can get the job done. in the knowledge that they're all JUST politicians and are therefore inherently suspect. but they are our servants.
here it seems we want a great leader. but then we still somehow keep electing george bush. neither a man of the people or a great white knight. our judgement therefore is suspect. in reality and in the eyes of the outside world. and that's a problem. we aren't belgium. who we elect matters globally.
PS: have you seen the pic of Palin in the bikini with the gun? please tell me it's photoshopped. please!
What blows me away is the deluge of sexist comments from the typically pc media and left-leaning commentators. Unbelievable. If an African American had been the GOP pick for POTUS they'd probably be asking if fried chicken and watermelon would be served at the convention.
"secretary of blowjob...With Palin, I can get laid." < the closet sexists have been unleashed
Gov. Palin knew what she was getting into when she accepted the job. She's a former beauty queen with Ted Nugent credentials.
She has a five month old special needs infant and a 17 year old pregnant daughter. As a parent, I don't think it's out of order to question the wisdom her acceptance of the second most all-consuming job in the world at this particular moment. She's the mom. All infants need their moms. It's that simple. Young pregnant daughters also need their moms. also a fact.
especially when you consider the megawatt glare of publicity and media inquisition that we all know that joining the presidential campaign entails. and that she knew would inevitably be shone on her family.
Presumably she knows what she's doing. is she planning on using her daughter's unplanned pregnancy as proof of how pro-life she is. i'm guessing she is. that would be uncool. is she that ambitious?
and you're right, the democrats couldn't pick a broadly appealing candidate if their life depended on it. Block-o-wood Kerry? Jesus, what were they thinking.
Thatcher was a republican? Then why were the republicans always trying to kill her.
;-)
Excellent analysis, Toad. I'm so glad you published this. Much as it disappoints me to give the McCain camp kudos, I admit you are spot-on in your analysis. And Paul's comments/links are wickedly priceless.
It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.
So I love that you are bringing the discussion back to one of strategy and Walmart America brought to life. And frankly I see the strategy already coming to life. My girlfriend was a solid Hilary supporter and was likely going to sit on the sidelines once Obama won the nomination. But now she is firmly in the Palin camp because of all the reasons you list.
It will be interesting to see how this one plays out....though I have to say from the comments to this post, I already see people taking it to the lowest denominator of politics....